Are you looking for a
forecasting solution that is easy to use and saves
you a lot of time, yet improves forecasting reliability and
accuracy? Are you spending more time manipulating software features in
forecasting models than actually producing results? Don't you wish
you could become more agile in producing periodic baseline forecasts you need demand planning more
accurately... inexpensively... and
faster and easier? Now you can with the
PEERForecaster Add-in for
If you are spending a
lot of time developing and testing rolling forecasting models with
your enterprise demand planning systems without getting reliable
feedback and simple answers, then we may be in a position to help
you get those analyses done more quickly and with greater
technology has improved so much in recent years
that most demand forecasting software providers, including the
dominant ERP software vendors, may have fallen behind in providing
improved enterprise demand forecasting solutions on their platforms.
In the Certified Professional Demand Forecaster (CPDF) professional development training orkshops, Delphus is offering PEERForecaster FREE Excel Add-in with all the horsepower of a full-fledged forecast modeling tool without the overhead commonly associated with many forecasting systems. This is ideal for training and benchmarking your existing forecasting tool box. The models include the proven techniques from decomposition and simple smoothing to Holt trending, Holt-Winters trend/seasonal and damped trend exponential smoothing models as well as the univariate Box Jenkins ARIMA time series models. The algorithms for creating
trend/seasonal forecasts and model interpretations are well documented in the
literature (cf. Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing - The State Space Approach) as well as in the new book by Hans Levenbach, entitled Change&Chance Embraced: Achieving Agility with Smarter Forecasting in the Supply Chain.It is available from Amazon with reviews like these
. . . .
BETTER INSIGHTS Gather DATA, make the right sorts of simple calculations and end-up literally SEEING how well you are forecasting changes in both demand and its uncertainty. This new book by Dr. Hans Levenbach makes the advantages of tried-and-true "technical" methods more accessible to everybody involved in the forecasting process. Loved the pragmatic "Takeaways" at the end of each chapter! Bob Obenchain, PhD, Fellow of the American Statistical Association
When I was involved with forecasting several years ago we did not have the ability to incorporate the many methods and computer models that are presented so thoroughly in Dr. Levenbach's book "Change&Chance Embraced". In this book the author describes many unique methods and models that can be used in the business environment to provide a more accurate demand forecast. Each chapter has a final section called "Takeaways" which summarizes the chapter and is a helpful insight to its contents. Above and beyond it all we have to realize how important a forecast is to a company. It drives the Balance Sheet, ie cash, debt, facilities for manufacturing, etc. It evidently precipitates the Profit and Loss Statement, revenues, gross margin and of course the bottom line income which all of Wall Street will analyze against actual results. This will affect the price of the company's stock which can help or harm it considerably. In summation, demand forecasting is one of the most important activities a company is involved in and this book with it's approaches will definitely improve upon the current forecasts that are currently used. I highly recommend reading this book too see what it can provide for the improvement of your company's bottom line. Bob T..
A FREE copy of this forecasting book is
offered when you enroll in the CPDF Training and Certification curriculum for demand forecasters, operational planners and supply chain practitioners. The CPDF instructor-led, hands-on workshops utilize Excel Add-ins along with PEERForecaster as a training tool to re-enforce the modeling capabilities
of seasonal decomposition, exponential smoothing, rolling forecasts, forecast accuracy measurement, and
ARIMA models in the State Space modeling environment. You will
learn how to use techniques that have proven to be superior to the
traditional moving average forecasts, Holt and Holt-Winters methods. We will even show you how to avoid the myth of the Mean APE, the accuracy measure commonly referred to as the MAPE among demand planners and supply chain practitioners.
The international M3
forecasting competition has established that the family of
"damped trend" models generally
outperform the more conventional models used for
forecasting trends and seasonality in historical data. This
information has been published in the peer-reviewed International
Journal of Forecasting. Yet, these models are rarely, if ever,
found in many of the mainstream ERP/SCM demand planning systems
available in the market today!